Well there has been much written, including by myself, over the Ukrainian situation with Russian gas, the pressure the 2009 gas deal puts on the Ukrainian budget and the amount of time before Ukraine can take upstream projects and turn them into downstream production to alleviate this problem. It is not often I write about… [Continue Reading]
Yikes! - The neighbourhood is going ballistic
February 23, 2012 By Leave a Comment
Well after yesterday’s post relating to the sedate life of Odessa, it’s time to go ballistic. No, I mean seriously to go ballistic! The neighbourhood is going ballistic. The Black Sea neighbourhood that is. Immediately to the west of Odessa is the EU and the majority of the NATO membership. I can be in… [Continue Reading]
EU Foreign Policy – The school report says “Could do better”
January 31, 2012 By Leave a Comment
Well, following on from yesterday’s post relating to Russian soft power and how it affects Ukraine, it is only right to look at the other geopolitical actor seeking to influence the nation, the EU. Today those very clever people at The European Council on Foreign Relations publish their annual scorecard on EU foreign policy relating… [Continue Reading]
A good question - Ukrainian direction in 2012
January 3, 2012 By Leave a Comment
Well, I have been posed a very good question by a regular reader, asking which way Ukraine will head in 2012. East or West? Before I give the answer I think more likely, it is probably necessary to look are the regional situation in broad, rather than detailed, brush strokes. Firstly let us look East.… [Continue Reading]
Death of an EU white elephant a risk to Ukraine – Nabucco
November 19, 2011 By
Well the death of the Nabucco pipeline seems to have finally arrived as I (and many others) have predicted years ago. It was, of course, doomed to failure from the outset, not because of the idea or reasoning behind it both of which are sound, but because of the parties involved and the geopolitics. Unsurprisingly,… [Continue Reading]
Black Sea Economic Cooperation - The Next Chess Piece?
October 22, 2011 By
For those of you who have never heard of the Organisation of BSEC (Black Sea Economic Cooperation), it is hardly surprising unless you live next to the Black Sea like I do. The BSEC is a forum of 11 nations consisting of consisting of Albania, Algeria, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Georgia, Greece, Moldova, Romania, Russia, Turkey and… [Continue Reading]
Love thy neighbour - Ukraine/Turkey
July 16, 2011 By Leave a Comment
Turkey is major regional player in this neck of the woods. Not only does it have a massive military capability and by far the strongest navy in he Black Sea region, it is the only Muslim NATO member and an established democracy as far as free and fair elections are concerned. It also happens to… [Continue Reading]
Influence and leverage verses kinetic energy - Will Turkey be a precedent for Ukraine?
June 21, 2011 By Leave a Comment
Most of us will remember the kinetic energy formula of half mass x velocity squared equaling kinetic energy from our days plodding through O level physics, when the cane was still a fashionable accessory to the Head or Deputy Headmaster. Always an unfortunate event if the potential energy of that wooden stick turned into kinetic… [Continue Reading]